cwicr-risk-calculator
Quantify cost estimate uncertainty by running Monte Carlo simulations across work items with configurable risk levels and probability distributions. The tool generates confidence intervals (P50, P80, P90) and identifies high-impact risk items to guide contingency planning.
CWICR Risk Calculator computes risk-adjusted cost estimates using Monte Carlo simulation and probability distributions.
AI-generated summary based on this skill's SKILL.md
Decision gist · record as of 2026-02-14
CWICR Risk Calculator computes risk-adjusted cost estimates using Monte Carlo simulation and probability distributions. Quantify cost estimate uncertainty by running Monte Carlo simulations across work items with configurable risk levels and probability distributions. The tool generates confidence intervals (P50, P80, P90) and identifies high-impact risk items to guide contingency planning.
Use it when
- cwicr-risk-calculator produces P50, P80, and P90 confidence intervals for your cost estimates.
- Yes.
Verify before relying
Read SKILL.md below before installing (3 files). Open directory: indexed for reading, not audited.
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Install
datadrivenconstruction/DDC_Skills_for_AI_Agents_in_Construction/cwicr-risk-calculator · repository language: Python
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Frequently asked questions
AI-generated answers based on this skill's SKILL.md and metadata
How does cwicr-risk-calculator calculate risk-adjusted cost estimates?
cwicr-risk-calculator uses Monte Carlo simulation to quantify cost estimate uncertainty across work items. The tool runs thousands of iterations using configurable probability distributions and risk levels for each item, then aggregates results to generate risk-adjusted totals that reflect the full range of possible project costs.
What confidence intervals does cwicr-risk-calculator generate?
cwicr-risk-calculator produces P50, P80, and P90 confidence intervals for your cost estimates. P50 represents the median expected cost, P80 indicates the cost level with 80% confidence of not being exceeded, and P90 provides a high-confidence upper bound—helping you set realistic contingency reserves.
Can cwicr-risk-calculator determine appropriate contingency allowances by project phase?
Yes. cwicr-risk-calculator analyzes cost uncertainty across different project phases and recommends phase-specific contingency allowances based on the risk profiles and probability distributions you configure for work items in each phase.
How does cwicr-risk-calculator identify high-risk work items?
cwicr-risk-calculator flags work items with the highest cost exposure by analyzing their probability distributions and sensitivity to cost drivers. This prioritization helps you focus risk mitigation efforts on activities that pose the greatest threat to your project budget.
What probability distributions does cwicr-risk-calculator support for Monte Carlo simulation?
cwicr-risk-calculator supports triangular distribution cost modeling and other configurable probability distributions for Monte Carlo simulation. You define the distribution parameters for each work item to reflect your uncertainty about costs.
Can cwicr-risk-calculator perform sensitivity analysis on cost drivers?
Yes. cwicr-risk-calculator includes sensitivity analysis capabilities to test how changes in key cost drivers affect your overall estimate. This helps you understand which factors have the greatest influence on project cost uncertainty and where to focus estimation refinement.
SKILL.md
Rendered from the published skill. Quoted content, verbatim.
CWICR Risk Calculator
Business Case
Problem Statement
Cost estimates have inherent uncertainty: - What contingency to apply? - What is the confidence range? - Which items have highest risk? - How to quantify uncertainty?
Solution
Risk-adjusted cost calculations using contingency analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, and probability distributions based on CWICR cost data.
Business Value
- Informed decisions - Understand estimate uncertainty
- Appropriate contingency - Data-driven risk allowance
- Confidence intervals - P50, P80, P90 estimates
- Risk prioritization - Focus on high-impact items
Technical Implementation
```python import pandas as pd import numpy as np from typing import Dict, Any, List, Optional, Tuple from dataclasses import
(truncated - see the full file via the links below)
File tree — 3 files
1_DDC_Toolkit/CWICR-Database/cwicr-risk-calculator/SKILL.md
1_DDC_Toolkit/CWICR-Database/cwicr-risk-calculator/claw.json
1_DDC_Toolkit/CWICR-Database/cwicr-risk-calculator/instructions.md
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