macro-analysis
Macro-analysis interprets economic indicators and policy signals from the Fed, PBOC, and ECB to pinpoint where the economy sits in its cycle—recovery, overheat, stagflation, or recession. It then translates that positioning into actionable asset allocation tilts, helping you understand which asset classes should be favored given current growth and inflation trends.
Macro-analysis identifies your current economic cycle stage and recommends asset allocation tilts based on macroeconomic data and central-bank policy.
AI-generated summary based on this skill's SKILL.md
Decision gist · record as of 2026-07-27
Macro-analysis identifies your current economic cycle stage and recommends asset allocation tilts based on macroeconomic data and central-bank policy. Macro-analysis interprets economic indicators and policy signals from the Fed, PBOC, and ECB to pinpoint where the economy sits in its cycle—recovery, overheat, stagflation, or recession. It then translates that positioning into actionable asset allocation tilts, helping you understand which asset classes should be favored given current growth and inflation trends.
Use it when
- Macro-analysis pinpoints four key cycle stages: recovery, overheat, stagflation, and recession.
- Macro-analysis assesses monetary transmission impact by monitoring policy signals from the Fed, PBOC, and ECB.
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HKUDS/Vibe-Trading/macro-analysis · repository language: Python
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Frequently asked questions
AI-generated answers based on this skill's SKILL.md and metadata
How does macro-analysis help with macroeconomic analysis for portfolio allocation?
Macro-analysis interprets economic indicators and central bank policy signals from the Fed, PBOC, and ECB to identify the current economic cycle stage—recovery, overheat, stagflation, or recession. It then translates that positioning into actionable asset allocation recommendations, helping you determine which asset classes (equities, bonds, commodities) should be overweighted or underweighted based on growth and inflation trends.
What economic cycle stages does macro-analysis identify?
Macro-analysis pinpoints four key cycle stages: recovery, overheat, stagflation, and recession. By analyzing macroeconomic indicators like GDP, CPI, and PMI data alongside central bank policy signals, it determines where the economy currently sits and forecasts growth and inflation trends to guide your positioning strategy.
How does macro-analysis interpret central bank policy signals?
Macro-analysis assesses monetary transmission impact by monitoring policy signals from the Fed, PBOC, and ECB. It evaluates interest rate decisions, liquidity conditions, and policy divergence across regions to understand how central bank actions will affect different asset classes and inform your macro-driven portfolio strategy.
Which macroeconomic indicators does macro-analysis use for forecasting?
Macro-analysis analyzes key indicators including GDP, CPI, PMI manufacturing data, interest rates, and FX movements to forecast growth and inflation trends. These metrics help identify economic health, cycle timing, and whether deflationary or inflationary pressures are building—critical inputs for asset allocation decisions.
How does macro-analysis monitor China, US, and Eurozone divergence?
Macro-analysis tracks policy and economic data divergence across China, the US, and Eurozone to assess portfolio risk management implications. Understanding how different regions' growth trajectories and central bank stances diverge helps you position for relative asset performance and manage geopolitical and monetary policy risks.
What asset allocation recommendations does macro-analysis provide?
Macro-analysis delivers overweight/underweight positioning recommendations across equities, bonds, and commodities based on the identified economic cycle stage and macroeconomic outlook. These tilts reflect whether current conditions favor risk assets, defensive positioning, or commodity hedges given inflation and growth forecasts.
SKILL.md
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Macroeconomic Analysis
Overview
Interprets macroeconomic data and central-bank policy, identifies the current economic-cycle stage, and derives major-asset allocation direction. Covers the three major economies of China (PBOC), the United States (Fed), and Europe (ECB).
Core Indicator System
Growth Indicators
| Indicator | Frequency | Key Threshold | Data Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP YoY | Quarterly | China >5% = normal, <4% = weak | National Bureau of Statistics |
| Manufacturing PMI | Monthly | >50 = expansion, <50 = contraction, 49-51 = borderline | NBS / Caixin |
| Industrial production | Monthly | >5% = normal | National Bureau of Statistics |
| Retail sales | Monthly | >8% = strong consumption | National Bureau of Statistics |
| Fixed asset investment | Monthly | Focus on infrastructure vs real-estate components | National Bureau of Statistics |
Inflation Indicators
| Indicator | Frequency | Key
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